✈️ Flight Disruption Risk Tracker
Jet fuel prices have surged 38% above pre-war levels following the Strait of Hormuz disruption. This tracker shows flight cancellation risk by country, airline status updates, and the outlook for the summer 2026 peak travel season.
Global Jet Fuel Situation — April 2026
Peak Travel Season Outlook — July & August 2026
Flight Disruption Risk by Country
32 countries| Country | Now | +90 Days | Jul/Aug Peak | Jet Fuel | Key Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
🇵🇰Pakistan | Critical | Critical | Critical | +78% | PIA has suspended multiple routes |
🇱🇰Sri Lanka | Critical | High | High | +71% | Sri Lankan Airlines cancelled all Middle East routes |
🇧🇩Bangladesh | Critical | High | High | +68% | Biman suspended Dhaka–Muscat and Dhaka–Bahrain |
🇾🇪Yemen | Critical | Critical | Critical | +110% | Sanaa and Aden airports operating intermittently |
🇮🇶Iraq | Critical | High | High | +65% | Baghdad and Basra airports under airspace restrictions |
🇮🇷Iran | Critical | Critical | Critical | +120% | Active conflict zone |
🇯🇵Japan | High | High | High | +52% | 90% Middle East oil dependency for jet fuel |
🇰🇷South Korea | High | High | High | +50% | 85% Middle East oil dependency |
🇮🇳India | High | High | High | +55% | Air India and IndiGo added major surcharges |
🇵🇭Philippines | High | Moderate | High | +48% | Philippine Airlines added fuel surcharges |
🇹🇭Thailand | High | Moderate | High | +45% | Thai Airways reduced Middle East capacity by 20% |
🇪🇬Egypt | High | Moderate | High | +52% | EgyptAir added fuel surcharges |
🇹🇼Taiwan | High | High | High | +49% | 98% oil import dependency |
🇸🇬Singapore | High | Moderate | Moderate | +44% | Singapore Airlines added fuel surcharges |
🇲🇾Malaysia | High | Moderate | High | +43% | Malaysia Airlines added surcharges |
🇬🇧United Kingdom | Moderate | Moderate | High | +32% | British Airways added fuel surcharges |
🇩🇪Germany | Moderate | Moderate | High | +30% | Lufthansa Group added surcharges across all brands |
🇫🇷France | Moderate | Moderate | High | +28% | Air France–KLM added surcharges |
🇺🇸United States | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | +25% | US is a major domestic oil producer |
🇦🇺Australia | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | +35% | Qantas and Virgin Australia added fuel surcharges |
🇨🇳China | Moderate | Moderate | High | +38% | China is a major oil importer but has large strategic reserves |
🇦🇪United Arab Emirates | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | +30% | Emirates and Etihad added surcharges |
🇮🇩Indonesia | Moderate | Moderate | High | +42% | Garuda Indonesia added fuel surcharges |
🇿🇦South Africa | Moderate | Moderate | Moderate | +36% | South African Airways added surcharges |
🇹🇷Turkey | Moderate | Moderate | High | +40% | Turkish Airlines maintained full operations but added surcharges |
🇬🇷Greece | Moderate | Moderate | High | +31% | Aegean Airlines added surcharges |
🇪🇸Spain | Moderate | Moderate | High | +29% | Iberia and Vueling added surcharges |
🇮🇹Italy | Moderate | Moderate | High | +30% | ITA Airways added surcharges |
🇨🇦Canada | Low | Low | Low | +20% | Canada is a major oil producer |
🇳🇴Norway | Low | Low | Low | +15% | Norway is a major oil and gas producer |
🇳🇿New Zealand | Low | Low | Low | +28% | Air New Zealand added fuel surcharges |
🇧🇷Brazil | Low | Low | Low | +22% | Brazil is a major oil producer (Petrobras) |
Airline Status Tracker
Last updated: 14 Apr 2026Emirates added a $45–$85 per-sector fuel surcharge on all long-haul routes effective March 2026 following jet fuel prices rising 52% above pre-war levels.
Etihad introduced a fuel surcharge of $30–$70 per sector on international routes from Abu Dhabi, citing unprecedented jet fuel cost increases.
Qatar Airways reduced capacity by 15% on Asia-Pacific routes and suspended twice-weekly Doha–Colombo service pending fuel supply stabilisation at Hamad International.
Air India applied a ₹4,500–₹12,000 fuel surcharge on international routes and warned of further increases if jet fuel prices remain elevated.
IndiGo added a domestic fuel surcharge of ₹1,800–₹3,200 per sector. The airline warned it may suspend some regional routes if ATF prices do not stabilise within 60 days.
PIA suspended all flights to Karachi–Dubai, Karachi–Abu Dhabi, and Lahore–Riyadh routes after Pakistan jet fuel supply fell to critically low levels. Resumption date uncertain.
Sri Lankan Airlines cancelled all flights to the Middle East and reduced long-haul operations by 40% due to jet fuel shortages at Bandaranaike International Airport.
Biman suspended Dhaka–Muscat and Dhaka–Bahrain routes indefinitely. The airline is operating at 60% of pre-war capacity due to jet fuel rationing at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport.
Ethiopian Airlines added a $25–$60 fuel surcharge per sector on all routes. The airline has maintained full operations and is positioning itself as an alternative hub for Africa–Asia routing.
Kenya Airways introduced a $20–$45 fuel surcharge on all routes. The airline noted that Nairobi jet fuel supply is stable as Kenya sources primarily from East African suppliers.
JAL added a ¥6,000–¥18,000 fuel surcharge per sector on international routes. Japan is heavily dependent on Middle East crude for jet fuel production, with reserves estimated at 90 days.
Korean Air added a ₩45,000–₩120,000 fuel surcharge on international routes. The airline warned of potential capacity reductions if the Hormuz situation does not improve by June 2026.
British Airways added a £25–£65 fuel surcharge per sector on long-haul routes. The UK sources jet fuel primarily from North Sea refineries and Rotterdam, limiting direct exposure to Hormuz disruption.
Lufthansa Group (including SWISS, Austrian, Brussels Airlines) added €20–€55 fuel surcharge per sector on all routes. European jet fuel supply is stable but prices have risen 38% above pre-war.
Ryanair raised base fares by an average of 18% across all routes, citing jet fuel cost increases. The airline has not introduced a separate surcharge but warned of further fare rises if fuel costs remain elevated.
Air France–KLM added a €18–€50 fuel surcharge per sector. The airline group has maintained full operations and does not anticipate cancellations given European fuel supply stability.
Singapore Airlines added a S$35–S$95 fuel surcharge per sector on all routes. Changi Airport has maintained jet fuel supply through diversified sourcing, but costs have risen significantly.
Thai Airways reduced capacity by 20% on Middle East routes and suspended Bangkok–Tehran service. The airline is operating normally on European and Asia-Pacific routes.
Philippine Airlines added a ₱1,800–₱5,500 fuel surcharge on international routes. The airline noted that Manila's jet fuel supply is adequate for the next 45 days but is monitoring the situation closely.
Flydubai suspended all flights to Iran, Iraq, and Yemen indefinitely due to airspace restrictions and fuel supply uncertainty at destination airports.
Not financial advice. Always verify directly with your airline before booking.
