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✈️ Flight Disruption Risk Tracker

Jet fuel prices have surged 38% above pre-war levels following the Strait of Hormuz disruption. This tracker shows flight cancellation risk by country, airline status updates, and the outlook for the summer 2026 peak travel season.

🚨
6
Critical Disruption
⚠️
9
High Risk Routes
13
Moderate Risk
✈️
20
Airlines Affected

Global Jet Fuel Situation — April 2026

Jet Fuel Price (Global Avg)
+38% vs pre-war
Singapore benchmark: $1.24/L (was $0.90)
Hormuz Disruption Impact
Day 72
Middle East routes most affected; Gulf carriers rerouting via Red Sea
Peak Season Outlook (Jul/Aug)
High Risk
Summer demand surge + constrained supply = elevated cancellation probability

Peak Travel Season Outlook — July & August 2026

Summer 2026 is the first peak travel season since the Strait of Hormuz disruption began. Jet fuel demand will surge by an estimated 18–22% above current levels. Airlines serving Middle East, South Asia, and East Asia routes face the highest cancellation probability. Travellers should book refundable fares and check airline fuel hedging positions before booking.

Flight Disruption Risk by Country

32 countries
Sort:
CountryNow+90 DaysJul/Aug PeakJet FuelKey Risk
🇵🇰Pakistan
CriticalCriticalCritical+78%PIA has suspended multiple routes
🇱🇰Sri Lanka
CriticalHighHigh+71%Sri Lankan Airlines cancelled all Middle East routes
🇧🇩Bangladesh
CriticalHighHigh+68%Biman suspended Dhaka–Muscat and Dhaka–Bahrain
🇾🇪Yemen
CriticalCriticalCritical+110%Sanaa and Aden airports operating intermittently
🇮🇶Iraq
CriticalHighHigh+65%Baghdad and Basra airports under airspace restrictions
🇮🇷Iran
CriticalCriticalCritical+120%Active conflict zone
🇯🇵Japan
HighHighHigh+52%90% Middle East oil dependency for jet fuel
🇰🇷South Korea
HighHighHigh+50%85% Middle East oil dependency
🇮🇳India
HighHighHigh+55%Air India and IndiGo added major surcharges
🇵🇭Philippines
HighModerateHigh+48%Philippine Airlines added fuel surcharges
🇹🇭Thailand
HighModerateHigh+45%Thai Airways reduced Middle East capacity by 20%
🇪🇬Egypt
HighModerateHigh+52%EgyptAir added fuel surcharges
🇹🇼Taiwan
HighHighHigh+49%98% oil import dependency
🇸🇬Singapore
HighModerateModerate+44%Singapore Airlines added fuel surcharges
🇲🇾Malaysia
HighModerateHigh+43%Malaysia Airlines added surcharges
🇬🇧United Kingdom
ModerateModerateHigh+32%British Airways added fuel surcharges
🇩🇪Germany
ModerateModerateHigh+30%Lufthansa Group added surcharges across all brands
🇫🇷France
ModerateModerateHigh+28%Air France–KLM added surcharges
🇺🇸United States
ModerateModerateModerate+25%US is a major domestic oil producer
🇦🇺Australia
ModerateModerateModerate+35%Qantas and Virgin Australia added fuel surcharges
🇨🇳China
ModerateModerateHigh+38%China is a major oil importer but has large strategic reserves
🇦🇪United Arab Emirates
ModerateModerateModerate+30%Emirates and Etihad added surcharges
🇮🇩Indonesia
ModerateModerateHigh+42%Garuda Indonesia added fuel surcharges
🇿🇦South Africa
ModerateModerateModerate+36%South African Airways added surcharges
🇹🇷Turkey
ModerateModerateHigh+40%Turkish Airlines maintained full operations but added surcharges
🇬🇷Greece
ModerateModerateHigh+31%Aegean Airlines added surcharges
🇪🇸Spain
ModerateModerateHigh+29%Iberia and Vueling added surcharges
🇮🇹Italy
ModerateModerateHigh+30%ITA Airways added surcharges
🇨🇦Canada
LowLowLow+20%Canada is a major oil producer
🇳🇴Norway
LowLowLow+15%Norway is a major oil and gas producer
🇳🇿New Zealand
LowLowLow+28%Air New Zealand added fuel surcharges
🇧🇷Brazil
LowLowLow+22%Brazil is a major oil producer (Petrobras)

Airline Status Tracker

Last updated: 14 Apr 2026
EmiratesEK🇦🇪
United Arab Emirates
Fuel Surcharge

Emirates added a $45–$85 per-sector fuel surcharge on all long-haul routes effective March 2026 following jet fuel prices rising 52% above pre-war levels.

Routes: All long-haul routesSurcharge: $45–$85/sectorUpdated: 10 AprEmirates Media Centre ↗
Etihad AirwaysEY🇦🇪
United Arab Emirates
Fuel Surcharge

Etihad introduced a fuel surcharge of $30–$70 per sector on international routes from Abu Dhabi, citing unprecedented jet fuel cost increases.

Routes: All international routes from AUHSurcharge: $30–$70/sectorUpdated: 8 AprEtihad Media Centre ↗
Qatar AirwaysQR🇶🇦
Qatar
capacity-reduction

Qatar Airways reduced capacity by 15% on Asia-Pacific routes and suspended twice-weekly Doha–Colombo service pending fuel supply stabilisation at Hamad International.

Routes: Asia-Pacific routes; DOH–CMB suspendedUpdated: 11 AprQatar Airways Press ↗
Air IndiaAI🇮🇳
India
Fuel Surcharge

Air India applied a ₹4,500–₹12,000 fuel surcharge on international routes and warned of further increases if jet fuel prices remain elevated.

Routes: All international routesSurcharge: ₹4,500–₹12,000Updated: 9 AprAir India Newsroom ↗
IndiGo6E🇮🇳
India
Fuel Surcharge

IndiGo added a domestic fuel surcharge of ₹1,800–₹3,200 per sector. The airline warned it may suspend some regional routes if ATF prices do not stabilise within 60 days.

Routes: All domestic routesSurcharge: ₹1,800–₹3,200/sectorUpdated: 7 AprIndiGo Press Releases ↗
Pakistan International AirlinesPK🇵🇰
Pakistan
Cancellations

PIA suspended all flights to Karachi–Dubai, Karachi–Abu Dhabi, and Lahore–Riyadh routes after Pakistan jet fuel supply fell to critically low levels. Resumption date uncertain.

Routes: KHI–DXB, KHI–AUH, LHE–RUH suspendedUpdated: 12 AprPIA News ↗
Sri Lankan AirlinesUL🇱🇰
Sri Lanka
Cancellations

Sri Lankan Airlines cancelled all flights to the Middle East and reduced long-haul operations by 40% due to jet fuel shortages at Bandaranaike International Airport.

Routes: All Middle East routes; long-haul reduced 40%Updated: 11 AprSriLankan Airlines Media ↗
Biman Bangladesh AirlinesBG🇧🇩
Bangladesh
route-suspension

Biman suspended Dhaka–Muscat and Dhaka–Bahrain routes indefinitely. The airline is operating at 60% of pre-war capacity due to jet fuel rationing at Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport.

Routes: DAC–MCT, DAC–BAH suspendedUpdated: 10 AprBiman Airlines News ↗
Ethiopian AirlinesET🇪🇹
Ethiopia
Fuel Surcharge

Ethiopian Airlines added a $25–$60 fuel surcharge per sector on all routes. The airline has maintained full operations and is positioning itself as an alternative hub for Africa–Asia routing.

Routes: All routesSurcharge: $25–$60/sectorUpdated: 8 AprEthiopian Airlines Press ↗
Kenya AirwaysKQ🇰🇪
Kenya
Fuel Surcharge

Kenya Airways introduced a $20–$45 fuel surcharge on all routes. The airline noted that Nairobi jet fuel supply is stable as Kenya sources primarily from East African suppliers.

Routes: All routesSurcharge: $20–$45/sectorUpdated: 7 AprKenya Airways Media ↗
Japan AirlinesJL🇯🇵
Japan
Fuel Surcharge

JAL added a ¥6,000–¥18,000 fuel surcharge per sector on international routes. Japan is heavily dependent on Middle East crude for jet fuel production, with reserves estimated at 90 days.

Routes: All international routesSurcharge: ¥6,000–¥18,000/sectorUpdated: 9 AprJAL Press Releases ↗
Korean AirKE🇰🇷
South Korea
Fuel Surcharge

Korean Air added a ₩45,000–₩120,000 fuel surcharge on international routes. The airline warned of potential capacity reductions if the Hormuz situation does not improve by June 2026.

Routes: All international routesSurcharge: ₩45,000–₩120,000Updated: 10 AprKorean Air Newsroom ↗
British AirwaysBA🇬🇧
United Kingdom
Fuel Surcharge

British Airways added a £25–£65 fuel surcharge per sector on long-haul routes. The UK sources jet fuel primarily from North Sea refineries and Rotterdam, limiting direct exposure to Hormuz disruption.

Routes: Long-haul routesSurcharge: £25–£65/sectorUpdated: 8 AprBA Media Centre ↗
LufthansaLH🇩🇪
Germany
Fuel Surcharge

Lufthansa Group (including SWISS, Austrian, Brussels Airlines) added €20–€55 fuel surcharge per sector on all routes. European jet fuel supply is stable but prices have risen 38% above pre-war.

Routes: All routesSurcharge: €20–€55/sectorUpdated: 9 AprLufthansa Group Press ↗
RyanairFR🇮🇪
Ireland
Fuel Surcharge

Ryanair raised base fares by an average of 18% across all routes, citing jet fuel cost increases. The airline has not introduced a separate surcharge but warned of further fare rises if fuel costs remain elevated.

Routes: All routesSurcharge: +18% average fare increaseUpdated: 11 AprRyanair Corporate News ↗
Air FranceAF🇫🇷
France
Fuel Surcharge

Air France–KLM added a €18–€50 fuel surcharge per sector. The airline group has maintained full operations and does not anticipate cancellations given European fuel supply stability.

Routes: All routesSurcharge: €18–€50/sectorUpdated: 8 AprAir France-KLM Press ↗
Singapore AirlinesSQ🇸🇬
Singapore
Fuel Surcharge

Singapore Airlines added a S$35–S$95 fuel surcharge per sector on all routes. Changi Airport has maintained jet fuel supply through diversified sourcing, but costs have risen significantly.

Routes: All routesSurcharge: S$35–S$95/sectorUpdated: 10 AprSIA Media Centre ↗
Thai AirwaysTG🇹🇭
Thailand
capacity-reduction

Thai Airways reduced capacity by 20% on Middle East routes and suspended Bangkok–Tehran service. The airline is operating normally on European and Asia-Pacific routes.

Routes: Middle East routes reduced 20%; BKK–IKA suspendedUpdated: 9 AprThai Airways News ↗
Philippine AirlinesPR🇵🇭
Philippines
Fuel Surcharge

Philippine Airlines added a ₱1,800–₱5,500 fuel surcharge on international routes. The airline noted that Manila's jet fuel supply is adequate for the next 45 days but is monitoring the situation closely.

Routes: All international routesSurcharge: ₱1,800–₱5,500Updated: 8 AprPAL Newsroom ↗
FlydubaiFZ🇦🇪
United Arab Emirates
route-suspension

Flydubai suspended all flights to Iran, Iraq, and Yemen indefinitely due to airspace restrictions and fuel supply uncertainty at destination airports.

Routes: All flights to Iran, Iraq, Yemen suspendedUpdated: 12 AprFlydubai Press Releases ↗
Note: Airline status data is compiled from official airline press releases and media centres. Always verify directly with your airline before travel. Fuel surcharges are subject to change without notice.
Data sources: IATA, ICAO, airline press releases, Reuters Aviation, FlightGlobal, OAG · Updated daily
Not financial advice. Always verify directly with your airline before booking.
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