How We Calculate the Global Crisis Severity Index
This page explains in full technical detail how OilCrisisTracker.com calculates the Global Crisis Severity Index, how commodity prices are sourced and validated, and the limitations of our data. Transparency is central to our editorial standards.
Global Crisis Severity Index (0–100)
The Global Crisis Severity Index is a composite score from 0 to 100 that measures the overall severity of the energy supply disruption caused by the 2026 Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure. It is updated twice daily (06:00 and 18:00 UTC) and on any day when a major commodity price move exceeds 5%.
The index is calculated by an AI language model that receives real-time inputs across five sub-categories, each weighted by its relative importance to global energy security:
Brent crude price relative to the pre-conflict baseline of $70/bbl. A price of $70 scores 0; a price of $140+ scores 20. Intermediate values are scaled linearly. This sub-score reflects the direct economic cost of the disruption.
Assessed by AI based on the current state of the Strait of Hormuz (open/partially open/closed), active military operations, diplomatic progress, and the number of days since the initial disruption. A fully closed strait with no diplomatic progress scores 25.
Derived from the number of countries at critical food security risk (fewer than 30 days of food reserves), the current urea fertiliser price premium versus pre-war levels, and the proportion of global food-importing nations experiencing fuel shortages.
Reflects the volume of oil tanker traffic diverted from the Strait of Hormuz, the number of vessels currently taking the Cape of Good Hope alternative route (adding 10–14 days to transit times), and reported incidents of vessel seizure or attack.
Measures how many IEA member states have drawn down their strategic petroleum reserves by more than 10% since the crisis began, and the global average remaining days of supply at current consumption rates.
Severity Bands
Note: The index is an analytical tool, not a market prediction. It reflects the current state of the disruption as assessed from publicly available data. It should not be used as the sole basis for any commercial or policy decision.
Commodity Price Methodology
All commodity prices are sourced from Yahoo Finance's public market data API, which provides access to NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) and ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) futures contract prices. Prices are updated hourly during market trading hours.
Jet Fuel Price Derivation
Jet A-1 aviation fuel is not directly traded on public futures exchanges. We derive the Jet A-1 price from NYMEX Heating Oil futures (HO=F) using a standard 16.5% refining margin and distribution markup. This methodology is consistent with the approach used by IATA (International Air Transport Association) in its published Jet Fuel Monitor.
Formula: Jet A-1 price = HO=F price × 1.165
Day-over-Day Change Calculation
The percentage change shown for each commodity is calculated against the previous trading day's closing price (chartPreviousClose from Yahoo Finance). For futures contracts where previousClose is not available, we use chartPreviousClose as the reference price. If neither value is available (e.g., during market closure or data feed issues), the change percentage is displayed as "N/A" rather than showing a potentially misleading figure.
Country Data Methodology
Country-level data is compiled from a combination of official government statistics, international agency reports, and publicly available market data. The following explains the methodology for each key metric.
Strategic Oil Reserves (Days of Supply)
For IEA member states, strategic petroleum reserve data is sourced from IEA Oil Security reporting and member state mandatory stockholding obligations (90 days of net imports). For non-IEA members, we use EIA International Energy Statistics, national energy ministry publications, and academic research.
Where official data is unavailable or outdated, we apply conservative estimates based on known import dependency ratios, historical consumption data, and regional norms. Estimated values are clearly marked with an asterisk (*) on the country page.
Jet Fuel Reserves (Days of Supply)
Jet A-1 aviation fuel reserves are estimated separately from crude oil reserves because strategic reserves are primarily held as crude oil, not refined product. Countries with large refining capacity can convert crude reserves to jet fuel relatively quickly; countries that import refined product are more vulnerable.
Jet fuel reserve estimates are derived from IATA country fuel security assessments, national aviation authority data, and published strategic reserve policies. Values represent estimated operational days of supply at current aviation consumption rates, including both commercial and strategic stocks.
Retail Fuel Prices
Retail gasoline, diesel, and kerosene (Jet A-1) prices are sourced from GlobalPetrolPrices.com, which aggregates weekly price surveys from national statistics offices and fuel price monitoring agencies. Prices are in USD per litre and include all applicable taxes and subsidies. Crisis-period adjustments are applied based on the country's import dependency and the current Brent crude price premium versus the pre-conflict baseline.
Food Security Risk
Food security risk scores are derived from FAO Food Security Indicators and World Food Programme vulnerability indices, adjusted for the current crisis. Key factors include: import dependency for food staples, fertiliser price impact on agricultural input costs, fuel cost impact on food distribution, and existing food insecurity levels prior to the conflict. Countries with existing high food insecurity (WFP Hunger Map Category 3+) are assigned a higher risk multiplier.
Tanker Intelligence Methodology
Tanker movement data is compiled from publicly available AIS (Automatic Identification System) tracking data and supplemented by reporting from specialist maritime publications. The tanker page shows vessels currently inbound to each tracked country, with estimated arrival dates based on last known position and speed.
Vessel data is refreshed once daily. Vessels whose estimated arrival date has passed are automatically removed from the inbound list and considered to have arrived. New vessels are added daily based on current AIS data and maritime intelligence reporting.
Limitation: AIS data can be incomplete for vessels that have disabled their transponders (a practice that has increased during the current conflict). The tanker page should be treated as indicative rather than comprehensive. For authoritative vessel tracking, consult MarineTraffic or Lloyd's List.
Daily Intelligence Briefing
The Daily Intelligence Briefing is generated twice daily (06:00 and 18:00 UTC) by an AI language model. The model receives the following verified data inputs:
- Current Brent crude and WTI prices with day-over-day change (from live Yahoo Finance data)
- The 10 most recent news headlines from our aggregated energy news feed
- Current Global Crisis Severity Index score and sub-scores
- Number of countries at critical fuel reserve levels
- Current Hormuz disruption day count
The AI is explicitly instructed to: use only the verified data provided; not speculate beyond what the data supports; not mention specific oil prices unless the live price data was successfully retrieved; and clearly distinguish between confirmed facts and analytical assessments.
All AI-generated content on this site is clearly labelled as "AI-generated". The briefing represents an analytical summary, not a news report. For primary source reporting, follow the linked news articles in the briefing bullets.
Primary Data Sources
Strategic petroleum reserve data, oil security reporting
International energy statistics, country-level data
NYMEX and ICE futures prices (BZ=F, CL=F, NG=F, HO=F)
Jet A-1 price benchmarks and aviation fuel methodology
Weekly retail fuel price surveys by country
Country-level food security vulnerability data
Real-time food insecurity monitoring
Public AIS vessel tracking data
