Timor-Leste

Timor-Leste faces high vulnerability due to its 80% oil import dependency and declining domestic oil production despite offshore reserves. The nation's fuel security is precarious, with only 22 days of gasoline reserves, contributing to a high gasoline price of $1.28/L. The conflict has severely impacted food security, with a high food risk and a significant 62% increase in fertilizer costs. Lacking direct Hormuz exposure offers little relief given its reliance on imported refined products. The outlook is concerning, with continued economic strain and potential for social instability as fuel and food prices remain elevated.